生活在别处

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图书馆里任何一个角落都塞满了人，一向晚起的我自然是抢不到位置的，所幸把包存了坐在书架上随便捡书看。翻开一个20世纪60年代的人写的文章，大意是这样的：

刚毕业的他没有什么投资概念，但是股票行情奇好，只要把钱随便丢给哪只股票，年收益率都在30%以上，他从此以为投资是一件很轻松容易的事情，在没有任何止损措施的情况下疯狂圈钱。可是有一天，传说中的泡沫破了。当持有票据的市值跌到原来50%的时候，他还坚信着所谓的“长期投资”幻景；当跌至30%时，他仍坚信市场马上就会反弹，可是，事实证明，低迷的状态不停地延续。

看起来是不是很熟悉？

再摘录一段1929年大萧条后期的一些学术争论：

One of the practices of the 1920s that received criticism was the frequent appraisal of capital assets, the values of which came crashing down in 1929. A major lesson learned by accountants as a result of the Great Depression was that values were fleeting. The outcome was a strengthening of the historical cost basis of accounting. This basis received its highest expression in the famous Paton and Littleton momograph, An Introduction to Corporate Accounting Standards, of 1940. This document elegantly and persuasively set forth the case for historical cost accounting, based on the concept of the firm as a going concern. This concept justifies important attributes of historical cost accounting such as waiting to recognize revenue until objective evidence of realization is available, the matching against realized revenues of the allocated costs of earning those revenues, and the deferral of unrealized gains and losses on the balance sheet until the time came to match them with revenues. As a result, the income statement reliably shows the current "installment" of the firm's earning power. 

现在很多人所谓的改革是不是这些话的中文翻译版？

从小就被告诫：学历史，是因为它会一遍一遍又一遍的重复，今天总算真正理解了这句话。当危机来临的时候，几乎所有人都在第一时间把目光投向了1929和凯恩斯，期望从过往寻找一个确定的答案，事实上，现在的政策里，都能找到当年的影子。

当然感慨历史的反复，也来自于另外一件小事——前几天毛得一塌糊涂的我，昨天跟老爹通了一次电话以后，终于安定下来了。今天也在想问什么之前纠结的东西会这么快就摆平，标准的纠结程序不是应该先闹得鸡飞狗跳然后辗转反侧最后在实在无路可走的情况下痛下决心的吗？我早已经给自己找好了答案，可是现在不敢下定决心，需要一个坚强的支持而已。答案仍旧是历史的反复，只不过，重复后的历史，会走得更坚决。