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伟大的博弈论告诉我们，当你在做出决策的时候，一定要充分考虑其他人对此的反应。常见的情况是：事情并不会向着理想王国发展，因为他人的决定反过来又会影响你的计划效果，而他们如何决定，往往又是完全建立在你的决定之上，因因果果，条条络络，纷纷杂杂，困困扰扰。我认为，博弈论之所以在经济学领域取得如此高的地位，很大程度上来说，就在于市场经济的竞争状况完美地模拟了博弈论背景环境。

As the old saying goes, think third/twice before you make the final decision. Game Theory disagree with it by proving the funny truth that, nowadays, you need to think fourth. A game played in my Game Theory class last year in Rotterdam made the clearest illustration. At the beginning of the trimester, Professor SB proposed a game, in which everyone is invited to quote a integer between 0 and 100, the one roughly two thirds of the average number would be the lucky number, and the winner would be rewarded by a box of Belgium chocolate.

在比利时巧克力的诱惑下，每个人都开始绞尽脑汁计算。我的计算思路如下：

First of all, anyone choosing the integer between (67, 100) was definitely an maths idiot. The possibility of winning the game under this circumstance is sadly zero. Therefore, nobody in this classroom would do it, coz I suppose each of us truly want to win the Belgium chocolate.

继续剥洋葱皮。既然假设大家都会选择（0，67）之间的整数，那么我的答案一定要落在（0，45）之间，否则获胜的概率也不大。

Thirdly, (0, 45) was a kind of refined domain. Absolute most may do it. As the result, 45*2/3, that is 30 would be the best number. So my answer was 30.

当结果出来的时候，大部分人都吃了一惊，答案是20，恰好是30的2/3，一个金发帅哥独享了巧克力，留下身后一片羡慕和掌声。老师并没有公布每个人给出的数字是什么，只是提了一句：每年的结果都差不多！也就是说，多次试验下来的结果，答案都在20左右，这说明了什么？

I'd rather make another analysis based on the result of the game. Professor didn't disclose the details, though, it is not hard to reckon that, the absolute most offered a number around 30, exactly what I quoted. I should have furthered my solution. Back to the third stage, (0, 45) was a kind of refined domain. The absolute most may choose a number between 0 and 45, then we faced the same question- which number should I choose? Keeping in mind that the only criteria was two thirds of the average, most would choose 30, and further, the champion number would be 20.

20和30，一步之差，就是胜者和平庸者的区别。在竞争白热化，每个人都有清晰的独立思考能力的现在，若要脱颖而出，三思还不够，一定要深入下去，一直探到第四、五甚至六层才能罢手。世道不好混呐。